Moving along the schedule to our first pair of freestyle events for the week, and our first relay selection event.
Womens' 400 Free
The Favorites: This event is as wide-open as any for the women. Open water expert Chloe Sutton has put up the fastest time this Olympic cycle, but not by much. However, it was also two years ago so she could have more to drop. On the other hand, Allison Schmitt put up her second-ranked time just last weekend, presumably untapered. The US's best 200 freestyler did that time in the course of an intense race against rising distance phenom and 15-year-old Kathleen Ledecky, who seems to drop time every time she touches the water, which is what you'd expect at that age. Who knows what she could drop to in a month. Veterans and the faces of American women's distance swimming through Beijing, Katie Hoff and Kate Ziegler have also put up top-5 times this cycle.
The College Girls: Ashley Steenvorden of Minnesota comes in right after the aforementioned top 5. She's had a very consistently good career with the Golden Gophers and looks to top it off with an Olympic Trials finals appearance. Florida Gator Elizabeth Beisel isn't usally thought of as a distance swimmer but could add this to her repretoire at Trials, she's ranked 7th currently. Haley Anderson of USC (that's Southern Cal, not South Carolina) was the NCAA champion in this event last year, while freshman Georgia Bulldog Amber McDermott was the runner-up. Watch out for the rest of the vaunted Georgia mid-distance crew, Shannon Vreeland and Jordan Mattern also come in with Trials cuts.
The Teenagers: Ledecky is not the only youngster looking to make a splash at their first Trials. Gillian Ryan and Leah Smith are seperated by a mere 4 hundredths at 10th and 11th seed respectively. Chelsea Chenault joins the three as high schoolers who have broken 4:10 this cycle.
The Call: Schmitt has proven herself to be the best mid-distance hope for the Americans, she's put up fast times consistently throughout the season and in a variety of events. I'm going to go with Hoff for the second spot, to secure an Olympic swim in her second event of the week.
Mens' 200 Free
The Favorites: Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte are the big two again in this one. Phelps has the textile world record and is the only man to break 1:44 without the aid of a rubber suit. Lochte actually got his Olympic feet wet in the 4×200 relay in 2004 and is the most recent world champion in the event. Peter Vanderkaay and Ricky Berens are the next two fastest Americans, they also have Olympic relay experience while Vanderkaay boasts a 2008 bronze medal in this event. After that comes two recent ex-college mid distance standouts, Conor Dwyer and Matt McLean. Much as in the womens' 400, this event is filled with lots of entries from one program, in this case the Texas Longhorns, after Berens comes names like Walters, Hill, Youngquist, Klueh and Weber-Gale. The final heat could have a distinctly burnt-orange tint.
The College Boys: Not really many past Longhorns Hill (the reigning NCAA short course champion) and Youngquist. Hanging around in the late 20s are Florida freshman Nicholas Caldwell and Cal all-around star Tom Shields, who could possibly fight for a relay spot but will probably be focused more on the fly events.
The Teenagers: Nick Alexiou is the only high schooler under the 1:50 mark, though Reed Malone could join him at Trials. They've both done their best times in the past few months. The sprint free events definitely favor the more physically mature veterans over youngsters.
The Call: Picking some of these events is really not very fun, it's actually pretty boring to just say Phelps and Lochte for the win, but they are so far ahead of everybody else there's just no other option. For the other four relay spots, I'm going to take surging Berens, all-around standout Tyler Clary, who popped off a 1:48 last month in presumably heavy training, veteran Vanderkaay and Dwyer, who continues his rise from borderline DI recuit at Iowa to big-time national teamer with an Olympic relay berth.